Hong Kong’s export performance remains buoyant over the near term against the backdrop of global trade uncertainty, according to the recently-released HKTDC 2Q26 Export Confidence Index, with both of its key metrics – the Current Performance Index (51.0) and the Expectation Index (52.4) – returning to above 50.
Hong Kong’s trade prospects will hinge on a number of geopolitical developments. Taking into account the strong performance in the first five months of 2026, together with the high-base effect that will be evident later in the year, HKTDC Research is lifting its 2026 Hong Kong export growth to above 20%.
Electronic Exports Remain Key Growth Driver
While the AI‑driven technology upcycle had been highlighted in the HKTDC’s earlier forecast, its impact proved to be more substantial than initially anticipated. This sizable uptick was underpinned by robust demand for a range of technology‑related products, particularly semiconductors and intermediate electronic components. This contributed to an unexpectedly strong performance, with Hong Kong’s exports increasing by 36.2% yoy in the first five months of 2026 (See Chart 1).
Electronics exports alone posted yoy growth of 44.3% over the same period, far outpacing the expansion of several other key sectors such as jewellery (See Table 1).
Breaking down the electronics categories, parts and components in particular recorded 50.8% yoy growth in the first five months of this year, indicating a strong demand of raw materials for assembling electronic products.
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Broad-Based Growth Across Major Export Markets
In terms of Hong Kong’s major export markets, exports to the Chinese Mainland (up 39.1% yoy) and the ASEAN bloc (up 47.8% yoy) – Hong Kong’s two leading export destinations – continued to be among the most significant in terms of growth.
Meanwhile, despite the ongoing conflicts within the region, Hong Kong’s Middle East‑destined exports recorded a strong 29.3% yoy increase. This resilience largely reflects robust demand for high‑value electronics and jewellery, items that are typically shipped by air freight, making them unaffected by disruptions to land or maritime trade channels.
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2026 Mid-Year Export Review and Outlook: Hong Kong Export Growth Forecast Upgraded to above 20%
