China’s economy is projected to grow faster than expected in 2026, driven by resilience in manufacturing and exports, and supported by policy momentum from its upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The Goldman Sachs Research team has raised China’s real GDP forecast to 4.8% for 2026 (from 4.3%) and 4.7% for 2027, putting expectations above consensus and IMF estimates.
Export growth, previously anticipated at 2–3%, is now seen at 5–6% annually, reflecting China’s expanding global market share in advanced technology sectors.
Strong Export Performance Drives Market Optimism
Despite earlier tariff challenges, Chinese exports grew around 8% in 2025, underscoring competitiveness in high-tech areas such as semiconductors, autos, and batteries.
Other factors are underpinning this optimism:
- Policy Tailwinds: The new Five-Year Plan emphasizes upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging ones—especially new energy and advanced manufacturing—with coordinated support in logistics, finance, and infrastructure.
- Trade Diplomacy: Recent trade discussions in South Korea have led to tariff reductions and smoother access to key materials, signaling China’s growing leverage in global supply chains.
Implications for Global Buyers & Suppliers
For Buyers
Buyers can expect continued availability and competitive pricing from China’s tech-intensive exports, reinforcing global pricing shifts.
For Suppliers
Suppliers dependent on low-tech exports to China may encounter stronger competition as China’s industrial upgrading accelerates.
Overall, China’s 2026 outlook signals stronger export-led growth, deeper industrial sophistication, and intensified global competitiveness.
With evolving geopolitics, tariff policies and changing market demands, it is vital to choose a reliable e-commerce platform.
Be sure to continue your sourcing with hktdc.com Sourcing, a statutory-backed e-Marketplace with thousands of product varieties and trusted by millions of buyers and suppliers worldwide.
Our e-Marketplace provides a one-stop e-commerce platform for suppliers like you to:
- display a comprehensive product portfolio
- showcase certifications, awards and third-party verifications
- meet potential buyers online anytime, anywhere
- ensure your products appear in relevant buyer searches with advanced AI technology
Kickstart your exploration by clicking the banner below:
Related posts:
Global Market Watch: Key Asia-Pacific B2B Trade Trends for 2026
Southeast Asia’s Supplier Advantage: Driving Growth & Exports in 2026
Hong Kong 2025 Mid-Year Export Outlook: HKTDC Maintains 3% Growth Forecast Amid Global Trade Uncertainty
How to Find Verified Manufacturing or Suppliers in China During 2021 with HKTDC