The Hong Kong Government gave an account of the economic performance in the second quarter of 2025 and the latest GDP and price forecasts for 2025 in mid August. This article serves as an easy reference that summarizes the key findings for global buyers and suppliers who trade with the city.
- Hong Kong’s economy expanded solidly in Q2 2025.
- Real GDP grew 3.1% year-on-year, slightly higher than Q1’s 3.0%.
- On a quarter-to-quarter basis (seasonally adjusted), GDP rose 0.4%.
- Full-year 2025 GDP forecast: 2–3%, unchanged from previous estimates.
- Inflation forecast: underlying at 1.5%, headline at 1.8%.
External Trade
- Exports in July 2025 rose 14.3% year-on-year.
- Strong growth in exports to the Mainland China and Asian markets.
- Exports to the US and EU still declining.
- Risks: US tariff rates remain elevated and uncertain, potentially affecting trade.
Price Inflation
- Inflation remains stable.
- Composite CPI rose 1.0% in July, same as June.
- Price pressures largely contained.
Labour Market
- Unemployment rate rose slightly, but employment also increased.
- Rise in unemployed partly due to influx of fresh graduates and school leavers entering the market.
- Job creation expected to continue, supported by economic growth and government measures.
Retail and Consumption
- Retail sales up 0.7% in June 2025 year-on-year.
- Signs of stabilisation in the retail sector.
- Supported by higher employment earnings, strong stock market, tourism promotion, and mega events.
✅ Overall Takeaway
Hong Kong’s economy in 2025 is on a steady growth path with low inflation and improving domestic demand, but its outlook is still highly sensitive to external shocks—particularly from US trade and monetary policy. Global traders need to adjust their sourcing strategies accordingly to stay abreast of the changing market demands.
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Hong Kong Economy FAQ
1. How is Hong Kong’s economy performing in 2025?
Hong Kong’s economy expanded steadily in Q2 2025, with real GDP growing 3.1% year-on-year. Growth is supported by strong exports and improved domestic demand.
2. What is the GDP forecast for 2025?
The Government forecasts 2–3% real GDP growth for 2025, unchanged from earlier projections. This outlook reflects stable expansion amid global economic challenges.
3. How are exports doing in 2025?
Hong Kong’s exports increased by 14.3% in July 2025 compared to a year ago. Growth came mainly from the Mainland China and other Asian markets, while exports to the US and EU continued to decline due to persistent tariff uncertainties.
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